One of my favorite songs is Tom Lehrer’s New Math, where he notes, “It’s so simple, so very simple, that only a child can do it!” That’s what it must be like for the people in Sacramento counting the tax receipts. Back in April, it appeared that California would have a surplus of $1.9 Billion, compared to the deficit of $1 Billion in January. Well, we’re in June, and now we have a very different result from April: tax receipts are $764 million below expectations year-to-date according to the Governator’s finance department. And as you may remember, California has a structural deficit of about $1.4 billion. What a difference a month makes.
So what will our legislature do? Cut spending, so California lives within its means? Raise taxes, so that businesses in California have more reasons to head to Nevada, Oregon, and Arizona?
Well, here’s what the Chairman of the Legislative budget conference committee told the Sacramento Bee: “I’m sure to a certain degree this is gamesmanship.”
Wonderful.
Thomas Jefferson said, “Never spend your money before you have it.” Unfortunately, he doesn’t serve in the Legislature. This will be an ugly budget season in Sacramento, because what should be done—drastic cuts in government spending—has no chance of passage in Sacramento. What I expect will happen is a lot of smoke and mirrors so that California has a “balanced” budget with a $2 billion structural deficit, and that the Governator uses his red pencil (line-item vetos) early and often.