It’s time to begin our study of the ballot measures on California’s ballot in two weeks. I will be continuing my series on the presidential candidates—my article on John McCain will be up later this week. For now, let’s look at Proposition 1A, the Safe Reliable High-Speed Passenger Train Bond Act.
If this measure passes $9.95 billion of bonds would be sold by the state, costing about $19.4 billion over thirty years (or around $667 million a year). The bonds would be used to construct a high speed train from Los Angeles to San Francisco.
Proponents argue that passage would lead to a safe, high-speed train system to link the state. Opponents argue that this would be a huge cost to the state, and would run in red ink. The Legislative Analyst estimates that annual operating costs would exceed $1 billion, so that too must be figured in.
After the arguments were written the financial credit crisis occurred. That’s not mentioned by either the proponents or opponents, but you need to consider it. The ability of any government to issue bonds has been reduced; it’s likely that borrowing costs would be higher—potentially much higher—than estimated. I am very unconvinced about ridership claims; train service in the United States has to be supported by the government in order to continue.
No matter what you think, do make sure to vote on November 4th.
Note: Proposition 1 (listed in the original Voter’s Guide) was removed from the ballot and replaced by Proposition 1A (listed in the supplemental Voter’s Guide).