It now appears certain that Barack Obama will become the next President of the United States. Congratulations to him. It’s an historic occasion when race really doesn’t matter in electing a president. That said, it’s now time to ponder what this will mean for you and I vis-a-vis taxes.
First, I wrote a piece on what taxes would be like if Barack Obama were elected president. You may also want to read my overview on the two candidates, and the likely impact of Congress on your taxes.
Obama has said he would bring people together. However, his actions are very, very liberal. We will have a Congress where both the House and Senate are controlled by the Democrats (though it appears that Republicans will have enough votes to filibuster in the Senate). In the past, when this has occurred taxes have gone up.
The only saving grace is a bad economy. In the past, Democrats usually try to spend their way out of bad economies. When I was in school we were taught that Franklin Roosevelt’s policies—the New Deal—helped end the Great Depression. Economists now believe that they actually extended the Great Depression by seven years.
Perhaps President-Elect Obama will live up to what he said during the third presidential debate:
…what I’ve done throughout this campaign is to propose a net spending cut…. What I want to emphasize … is that I have been a strong proponent of pay-as- you-go. Every dollar that I’ve proposed, I’ve proposed an additional cut so that it matches. (Hat Tip: Volokh Conspiracy)
I’m not hopeful of this happening. He may want to, but I expect that the Democratic Congressional leaders want to spend, spend, spend. I hope I’m wrong. If I am I’ll happily post that.
Democrats may state that they have received “a mandate.” When I last checked the vote is 51% to 48% which is hardly a mandate. Indeed, the country remains nearly divided in half. I’m not going to point out the random factors that could have changed this race (I’ll leave that to political pundits). But when you hear the mandate meme, throw it away.
I suggest you start paying attention to the legislation very carefully. You can read the actual bills on the Library of Congress’ Thomas Site. Follow the legislation. It’s time to become the squeaky wheel.
So what should concerned taxpayers do? Let’s say that some particularly (in your view) onerous piece of legislation is introduced. The best way to combat bad legislation is to let your voice be heard. Call, write, or email your Congressman. If it’s an industry issue, have others in your industry do the same. Contact your trade association. Trust me, if a Congressman gets 2,000 phone calls or pieces of mail on what he thinks is routine legislation he will notice.
Forbes just ran an article stating that no matter who is elected president taxes will be going up. I think that’s definitely true. What I think may be worse is the additional regulatory burden placed on businesses.
This is yet another area where business owners need to become proactive. You may want to subscribe to the Federal Register’s daily email table of contents (the link is to the Federal Register; you can click on “sign up” to head to that page). Americans tend not to act until things become bad. Well, it’s far better to act before that occurs. Again, you and others impacted by proposed regulations need to be that squeaky wheel. If (or perhaps I should say when) you see a particularly onerous regulation being promulgated comment on the regulations. Let your Congressmen and Senators know of the problem.
Some of my friends have asked me what this will do for my business. Perversely, it will be a very good thing. Most professional preparers I know want a simple Tax Code. We’re not likely to see anything like that in the next four years. I’ll earn lots of fees utilizing methods that will save my clients taxes. That’s good for me (and other professional preparers) but bad overall for the economy. Basic economics teaches that a business will want to make a normal profit. If that business must spend more money on my services it will have less money for other things such as expansion, hiring additional employees, increasing salaries, etc. The next four years figure to be good for professional preparers.
Unfortunately, you will have to watch your wallets. Taxes are going up. The only question is how much.
